CAOSP abstracts, Volume: 45, No.: 2, year: 2015

Abstract: The paper offers a look at distribution of solar activity during an average solar cycle. Activity profiles in solar cycles from 13 to 17 and from 18 to 22 were studied based on the relative sunspot numbers. The average values for both groups of cycles were derived after the standardization to the maximum monthly value. Obtained values differed minimally, allowing us to derive a uniform distribution of activity for the entire review period from 1890 to 1996. The derived model of the distribution of activity in an average solar cycle allows us to predict the maximum value of an activity cycle with an advance of approximately 5 years based only on the value obtained in the first year of the cycle. This can be of use for, e.g., the planning of long-term human activities in outer space.

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