CAOSP abstracts, Volume: 41, No.: 2, year: 2011

Abstract: Predicting maxima and minima of solar activity cycles, including their magnitude, is important not only for a better understanding of the underlying physical processes on the Sun, but also from the point of view of solar-terrestrial relations. Such predictions employ a variety of well-know relations like those between even and odd cycles, or between the AA index and the Wolf number. Our prediction is based on the properties of large-scale meridional motions of prominences and the areas of enhanced intensities of the green line corona. We predict two maxima of cycle 24; first at the end of 2011, the other at the end of 2012. Although our method is unable to predict the magnitude of cycles, a relatively stable structural pattern of the above-mentioned meridional motions makes this method suitable for long-term predictions of the maxima/minima timings up to 2025.

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Last update: November 09, 2011